HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. University of Denver, 2. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. 7. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Watch Hampton City. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. (Sorry, not sorry.) Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. All other 21 counties voted Republican. 5. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. The divisions were everywhere. The divisions were everywhere. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. 2. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Until this year. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. 108,000 people. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. 8. It's the wrong question. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Outstanding. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. Not a bad streak. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. It's happened before. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. (i.e. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. But it's still indicative of widespread support. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . 3. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Nobody forgot about politics.". History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast.
2016 bellwether counties